Home owners beware While interest rates remain at record lows in a rising property market, borrowers may be left high and dry when the "dream combination" ends.

The Reserve Bank kept the official cash rate (OCR) locked at its all-time low of 2.5 per cent this morning, as was widely expected.

"What this means for consumers is mortgage rates are set to stay low for the course of this year," Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens, said.

The lowest rates in 50 years have helped drive up prices in the housing market, particularly in the Auckland and Canterbury regions.

"It sounds like the dream combination for the home buyer, but I wouldn't get too excited," Stephens said.
He warned that interest rates would inevitably settle at more normal levels.

"At that time, house prices may stop rising, or even fall, and those that are currently loaded up with debt will find the servicing costs a lot higher," he said.

Home loans are usually taken out over a term of 25 years or more, leaving borrowers potentially exposed further down the track.

"Don't get too beguiled by something that's lasted for a year or two now, and could last a year or two longer - but is still not permanent," Stephens said.

The OCR is most closely tied to the floating mortgage rate, which sits about 5.75 per cent for most of the major banks.

Stephens said he strongly preferred fixed-mortgage rates in the six-month, one-year or two-year terms, which were all cheaper than floating rates.

The only way floating borrowers would be better off was if the Reserve Bank cut the OCR, he said. "While that's possible, I don't think it's likely."

ASB senior economist Jane Turner said she expected the Reserve Bank to gradually hike interest rates during 2014 and 2015.

"Borrowers have to consider the potential for interest rate increases over this period when they're thinking about whether to fix or float," she said.

"We see good value in fixed products, but floating does still provide quite a lot of flexibility and ... remains at very low levels."

The Reserve Bank is seen to be caught in a jam between hiking the OCR, which would exacerbate the high Kiwi dollar, and lowering it, which would fuel house inflation.

The central bank repeated its opinion that the exchange rate was overvalued, but did not escalate its concerns or talk of intervention.

Markets took the statement favourably, pushing the kiwi dollar up shortly after the announcement.

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上周三储备银行官方现金利率（OCR）锁定在2.5％的历史低点，就如市场普遍预期的一样。“这对消费者来说这意味着今年的抵押贷款利率也将保持在低水平，”Westpac首席经济学家多米尼克•斯蒂芬斯说。

OCR跟浮动按揭利率联系最紧密，主要银行的大部分浮动利率位于5.75％左右。“如果储备银行削减OCR，那么银行的公布的浮动利率可能会变好”,但他觉得这种情况不太可能发生。

这50年来鲜有的低利率现象推动了住房市场的价格上涨，尤其是在奥克兰和坎特伯雷地区。“这听起来像购房者的梦幻组合，但我不会太激动，”斯蒂芬斯说。”利率将不可避免地回归到较为正常的水平”。 所有房屋主人都应该意识到,尽管房地产市场火热,但贷款利率维持在记录低点,当这种”梦幻组合”解体之后,贷款的条件可能会变严.

ASB高级经济学家简•特纳说，她预计储备银行在2014年和2015年期间会逐步加息，“在此期间贷款人须考虑潜在的利率是否会上升”。她说 ，“我们比较看好固定利率,但浮动确实提供相当多的灵活性，而且有时处于非常低的利率点。”所以在低利率的这段期间，仍然是贷款适合的时机。斯蒂芬斯强烈的推荐6个月，一年或两年固定贷款利率，相对于浮动利率较便宜。TFS公司也温馨提示各位有房屋贷款的朋友，在利率较低的当下，尽量把多余的钱用于偿还本金。等到利率上升的时候，由于贷款本金已经减少，利息的上涨就不会带来太多的经济压力。